How well do discrete choice experiments predict health choices? A systematic review and meta-analysis of external validity

Resource type
Journal Article
Authors/contributors
Title
How well do discrete choice experiments predict health choices? A systematic review and meta-analysis of external validity
Abstract
Discrete choice experiments (DCEs) are economic tools that elicit the stated preferences of respondents. Because of their increasing importance in informing the design of health products and services, it is critical to understand the extent to which DCEs give reliable predictions outside of the experimental context. We systematically reviewed the literature of published DCE studies comparing predictions to choices made in reality; we extracted individual-level data to estimate a bivariate mixed-effects model of pooled sensitivity and specificity. Eight studies met the inclusion criteria, and six of these gave sufficient data for inclusion in a meta-analysis. Pooled sensitivity and specificity estimates were 88% (95% CI 81, 92%) and 34% (95% CI 23, 46%), respectively, and the area under the SROC curve (AUC) was 0.60 (95% CI 0.55, 0.64). Results indicate that DCEs can produce reasonable predictions of health-related behaviors. There is a great need for future research on the external validity of DCEs, particularly empirical studies assessing predicted and revealed preferences of a representative sample of participants.
Publication
The European Journal of Health Economics
Volume
19
Issue
8
Pages
1053-1066
Date
2018-11-01
Journal Abbr
Eur J Health Econ
Language
en
ISSN
1618-7601
Short Title
How well do discrete choice experiments predict health choices?
Accessed
03/05/2021, 11:30
Library Catalogue
Springer Link
Citation
Quaife, M., Terris-Prestholt, F., Di Tanna, G. L., & Vickerman, P. (2018). How well do discrete choice experiments predict health choices? A systematic review and meta-analysis of external validity. The European Journal of Health Economics, 19(8), 1053–1066. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10198-018-0954-6